Duke University/CFO
Global Business Outlook Survey
First Quarter 2009

No individual firms are identified and only aggregate data are made public. Please respond by February 26. If you have any questions about this survey, please contact us.

1. Are you more or less optimistic about the U.S. economy compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the U.S. economy on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

2. Are you more or less optimistic about the financial prospects for your company compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the financial prospects for your own company on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

3. What are the top three external concerns facing your corporation? (rank #1, #2, #3)
   Consumer demand
   Cost of fuel
   Cost of non-fuel commodities
   Credit markets/interest rates
   Currency risk
   Environmental regulation
   Financial regulation
   Foreign competition
   Housing market fallout
   New administration and Congress
   Trade policies and trade agreements
   Other:  

4. What are the top three internal, company-specific concerns for your corporation? (rank #1, #2, #3)
   Ability to forecast results
   Attracting and retaining qualified employees
   Balance sheet weakness
   Cost of health care
   Data security
   Maintaining morale/productivity during economic downturn
   Managing IT systems
   Pension obligations
   Protection of intellectual property
   Supply chain risk
   Working capital management
   Other:  

5. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.) [Leave blank if not applicable.]
   Prices of your products
   Productivity (output per hour worked)
   Technology spending
   Capital spending
   Marketing/advertising spending
   Number of domestic employees overall
   Number of domestic employees in accounting/finance
   Number of foreign/off-shore outsourced employees
   Wages/Salaries
   Health care costs
   Earnings
   Cash on the balance sheet
   Dividends
   Share repurchases

6a. During 2009, does your company plan to:
  Acquire another company or companies?
  Acquire part of another company or companies?
  Both
  Neither

6b. During 2009, does your company plan to:
  Sell your company?
  Sell part of your company?
  Neither

7. What payroll actions has your company taken or are you planning to take in response to the recession?

  Taken in past 12 months   Plan to take in next 12 months
    Yes No       Yes No  
Hiring freeze          
Wage freeze          
Wage reduction          
Reduction of employee hours          
Reduction of workforce          

8a. Has your company been affected by the cost or availability of credit?
  No
  Yes, somewhat   
  Yes, very much  
8b. If yes, in what ways has your company been affected by the credit market turmoil?
   [check all that apply]
    Decreased availability of credit
          
Check here if you experienced difficulty initiating or renewing a bank credit line
  Increased cost of credit     How many basis points increase since summer 2007?   bps
  Other:   

9. How much does your firm hold in cash and marketable securities? (Express as a percentage of total assets.)
            Today %               One year ago %

10a. Does your company have a bank line of credit?
  No
  Yes  

10b. If yes, how large are your bank lines of credit? (Express as a percentage of total assets)
  Today %               One year ago %
 
10c. To what extent has your firm drawn on its lines of credit? For example, if you have drawn $60 from a line of credit with a $100 maximum, enter 60%   %

11. Considering your funding over the past six months, how much funding has come from each of the following sources? (express as a percentage of total assets)
   % Short-term debt
  
% Long-term debt
  
% Drawing on bank lines of credit
  
% Internal profits/retained earnings
   % Equity infusions or issuances
  
% Asset sales
  
% Commercial paper
  
% Other:    

12a. When capital markets are operating normally, rate your company's ability to obtain external funding to finance attractive investment projects. (Rate on a scale of 0-100, with 0 being no access and 100 being unrestricted access to capital)
    (0-100)

12b. In the current credit market environment, rate your company's ability to obtain external funding to finance attractive investment projects. (Rate on a scale of 0-100, with 0 being no access and 100 being unrestricted access to capital)
   (0-100)

12c. If external funding is limited, what is the probability that your company will take the following actions to manage your corporate investments? (Select 0% to 100% for each category)
   
We would fund with current cash flows/profits
We would fund with cash holdings / past profits
We would fund with other sources
Please identify other funding
source:
We would postpone or cancel positive net present value investment
 

13. Do you believe your business would benefit from the adoption of a national health care system in the United States?
  No
  Yes
  Not sure

14. After the federal government's economic stimulus efforts to this point, is the U.S. economy:
  Worse off than it would be if the government had not acted
  Better off than it would have been if the government had not acted
  No better or worse off

15. When do you expect the US economy to begin recovery?
  2009, Q1
  2009, Q2
  2009, Q3
  2009, Q4
  First half of 2010
  Second half of 2010
  2011 or later

16. Rate your company's long-term growth and investment opportunities on a scale of 0-100, with 100 being excellent growth and investment opportunities.
   (0-100)

 17. On February 16, 2009 the annual yield on 10-yr treasury bonds was 2.9%. Please complete the following:

a. Over the next 10 years, I expect the average annual S&P 500 return will be:


Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be less than:

             %
Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be greater than:

          %

b. During the next year, I expect the S&P 500 return will be:

Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be less than:

             %
Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be greater than:

          %

18. Please check one from each category that best describes your company:

     a. Industry

       Retail/Wholesale
       Mining/Construction
       Manufacturing
       Transportation/Energy
       Communications/Media
      Tech [Software/Biotech]
      Banking/Finance/Insurance
      Service/Consulting
      Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
      Other:  
  b. Sales Revenue  c. Number of Employees
       Less than $25 million
       $25-$99 million
       $100-$499 million
       $500-$999 million
       $1-$4.9 billion
       $5-$9.9 billion
       More than $10 billion
      Fewer than 100
      100-499
      500-999
      1,000-2,499
      2,500-4,999
      5,000-9,999
      More than 10,000
  d. Headquarters   e. Ownership
       Northeast U.S.
       Mountain U.S.
       Midwest U.S.
       South Central U.S.
       South Atlantic U.S.
       Pacific U.S.
 Canada
 Mexico
 South America
 Europe
 Asia
 
      Public, NYSE
      Public, NASDAQ/AMEX
      Private
      Government
      Nonprofit
  f. Foreign Sales   g. Over the next few years, what percentage of earnings does
  your company plan to pay out as dividends? (e.g., 0%, 30%, etc)
       0%
       1-24%
       25-50%
       More than 50%

   %

  We do not pay dividends

  h. What is your company's ratio of total debt to assets?
  (e.g., 33% if total debt is one-third of total assets)
  i. What was your company's return on assets (ROA) in fiscal
  2008?  (e.g., +5%, -12%, etc.)
   %    %
  j. What is your company's credit rating?   k. Your job title (e.g., CFO, Asst. Treasurer, etc)
  Check here if you do not have a rating, and please estimate what your rating would be.

      

  l.  Approximately in what year was your company
  founded?  (e.g., 1972, 2005)
   



Duke University, 2009