Duke University/CFO
Global Business Outlook Survey
Fourth Quarter 2008

No individual firms are identified and only aggregate data are made public. Please respond by December 4. If you have any questions about this survey, please contact us.

1. Are you more or less optimistic about the U.S. economy compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the U.S. economy on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

2. Are you more or less optimistic about the financial prospects for your company compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the financial prospects for your own company on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

3. What are the top three external concerns facing your corporation? (rank #1, #2, #3)
   Consumer demand
   Cost of fuel
   Cost of non-fuel commodities
   Credit markets/interest rates
   Environmental regulation
   Financial regulation
   Foreign competition
   Housing market fallout
   Trade policies and trade agreements
   Volatility of the dollar
   New administration and Congress
   Other:  

4. What are the top three internal, company-specific concerns for your corporation? (rank #1, #2, #3)
   Ability to forecast results
   Attracting and retaining qualified employees
   Balance sheet weakness
   Cost of health care
   Data security
   Maintaining morale/productivity during economic downturn
   Managing IT systems
   Pension obligations
   Protection of intellectual property
   Supply chain risk
   Other:  

5. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.) [Leave blank if not applicable.]
   Prices of your products
   Productivity (output per hour worked)
   Technology spending
   Capital spending
   Marketing/advertising spending
   Number of domestic employees overall
   Number of domestic employees in accounting/finance
   Number of foreign/off-shore outsourced employees
   Wages/Salaries
   Health care costs
   Earnings
   Cash on the balance sheet
   Dividends
   Share repurchases

6a. Has your company been affected by the cost or availability of credit?
  No
  Yes, somewhat   
  Yes, very much  
6b. If yes, in what ways has your company been affected by the credit market turmoil?
   [check all that apply]
    Decreased availability of credit
          
Check here if you experienced difficulty initiating or renewing a bank credit line
  Increased cost of credit     How many basis points increase since summer 2007?   bps
  Other:   

7a. How much does your firm hold in cash and marketable securities? (Express as a percentage of total assets.)
            Today %               One year ago %

7b. How large are your bank lines of credit?  (Express as a percentage of total assets.)
            Today %               One year ago %

7c. If you have used a bank line of credit this year, have you used the funds to: (Check all that apply)
  Manage immediate liquidity needs
  Fund normal day-to-day operations
  Build cash for the future, as a precaution
  Obtain cash now in the case bank restricts future credit access
  Other:   
  We do not use bank credit lines
  We have not drawn on any credit lines

7d. If your company has limited the use of bank credit lines in the past few months, why? (check all that apply)
  We do not need the funds
  To avoid paying fees
  The interest rate is too expensive
  To preserve our reputation among bankers and in financial markets
  To save some unused borrowing capacity for future use
  Other:  
  We do not have a bank credit line
  NA
 

7e. Compared to 2007, is your firm using more or less of the following funding sources?
  Less Same More NA
Short-term debt
Long-term debt
Bank lines of credit
Bank letters of credit
Factoring accounts receivable or other assets
Commercial paper
Retained earnings/cash
Equity infusions or issuances
Convertible debt
Asset sales
Credit card balances
Other:    

7f. Where does your firm hold most of its cash? (Check the vehicles where your firm keeps the largest balance and second largest balance)

       In November 2008

  Money market funds
  Treasuries
  Commercial bank account
  Government agency securities (e.g., Fannie Mae)
  Managed externally by money manager
  Other    

       In Summer 2008 (before Lehman collapse)

  Money market funds
  Treasuries
  Commercial bank account
  Government agency securities (e.g., Fannie Mae)
  Managed externally by money manager
  Other    

8a. When capital markets are operating normally, how much does your ability to access external capital limit your ability to pursue attractive investment projects?
  No Effect Small Effect Moderate Effect Large Effect  
   

8b. In the current credit market environment, how much does your ability to access external capital limit your ability to pursue attractive investment projects?
  No Effect Small Effect Moderate Effect Large Effect  
   

8c. When external capital is limited, are your corporate investments (check one or two choices)
  Funded by near-term cash flows/profits
  Funded by cash holdings
  Funded by joint ventures or partnerships
  Funded by other 

  Postponed or canceled
  Other    

9a. Do you conduct significant business with smaller financial institutions (i.e., banks other than the big nine that initially received money from the Fed's rescue plan)?
  Yes
  No

9b. How concerned are you about the financial health of the financial institutions your firm deals with?
  I have no concerns
  I have moderate concerns
  I have significant concerns

9c. Would you be concerned if the bank your firm does business with applied for Treasury equity?
  Yes
  No

9d. Has Lehmanís collapse affected how cautious you are about counterparty risk in derivatives markets?
  No, we are about as cautious as before
  Yes, we are somewhat more cautious
  Yes, we are much more cautious
  NA - We do not use derivatives

10. When do you expect the U.S. economy to begin recovery?
  2008, Quarter 4
  2009, Quarter 1
  2009, Quarter 2
  2009, Quarter 3
  2009, Quarter 4
  First half of 2010
  Second half of 2010 or later

11. Compared to the last 12 months, how much will exports help your company in 2009?
  A lot less
  Moderately less
  About the same
  Moderately more
  A lot more
  Not applicable

 12. On November 24, 2008 the annual yield on 10-yr treasury bonds was 3.3%. Please complete the following:

a. Over the next 10 years, I expect the average annual S&P 500 return will be:


Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be less than:

             %
Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be greater than:

          %

b. During the next year, I expect the S&P 500 return will be:

Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be less than:

             %
Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be greater than:

          %

13. How do you rate your company's long term growth prospects, on a scale of 1 to 10?
  Very
Poor
Very
Good
 
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  
   

14. Please check one from each category that best describes your company:

     a. Industry

       Retail/Wholesale
       Mining/Construction
       Manufacturing
       Transportation/Energy
       Communications/Media
      Tech [Software/Biotech]
      Banking/Finance/Insurance
      Service/Consulting
      Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
      Other:  
  b. Sales Revenue  c. Number of Employees
       Less than $25 million
       $25-$99 million
       $100-$499 million
       $500-$999 million
       $1-$4.9 billion
       $5-$9.9 billion
       More than $10 billion
      Fewer than 100
      100-499
      500-999
      1,000-2,499
      2,500-4,999
      5,000-9,999
      More than 10,000
  d. Headquarters   e. Ownership
       Northeast U.S.
       Mountain U.S.
       Midwest U.S.
       South Central U.S.
       South Atlantic U.S.
       Pacific U.S.
 Canada
 Central/Latin America
 Europe
 Asia
 
      Public, NYSE
      Public, NASDAQ/AMEX
      Private
      Government
      Nonprofit
  f. Foreign Sales   g. Does your firm have one or more foreign subsidiaries?
       0%
       1-24%
       25-50%
       More than 50%

  Yes
  No

  h. Does your firm pay a dividend?   i. Will your firm have positive net income in fiscal 2008?
       Yes
       No
       NA

  Yes
  No
  NA

  j. What is your company's credit rating?   k. Your job title (e.g., CFO, Asst. Treasurer, etc)
  Check here if you do not have a rating, and please estimate what your rating would be.

      

 



© Duke University, 2008