Duke University Business Outlook Survey
June 2004

All information will be used only in aggregate form. No individual data is recorded or made public. Please respond by 10 pm Eastern, Monday, June 14. If you have any questions about this survey, please contact us.

 

1. Are you more or less optimistic about the U.S. economy compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the U.S. economy on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

2. Are you more or less optimistic about the financial prospects for your company compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the financial prospects for your own company on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

3. What do you think annualized U.S. GDP growth will be during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.)
%

4. On June 8, 2004 the annual yield on 10-yr treasury bonds was 4.8%. Please complete the following:

a. Over the next 10 years, I expect the average annual S&P 500 return will be:


Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be less than:

             %
Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be greater than:

          %

b. During the next year, I expect the S&P 500 return will be:

Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be less than:

             %
Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be greater than:

          %

5. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.)  [Leave blank if not applicable]
%  Prices of your products
%  Productivity (output per hour worked)
%  Overtime
%  Advertising/Marketing spending
%  Health care costs
%  Inventory
%  Number of employees
%  Number of outsourced employees
%  Wages/Salaries
%  M&A activity
%  Dividends
%  Technology spending
%  Capital spending
%  Earnings
%  Revenues
%  R&D spending

6. The price of oil recently increased to more than $40/barrel. Has this affected your prospects for the next 12 months? 
Relative to a scenario in which the price of oil is approximately $30 per barrel, our prospects have

EARNINGS

Decreased minimally
Decreased moderately
Decreased substantially
No effect
Increased

INVESTMENT SPENDING

Decreased minimally
Decreased moderately
Decreased substantially
No effect
Increased

HIRING

Decreased minimally
Decreased moderately
Decreased substantially
No effect
Increased

7. The market is expecting the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 25bp in the each of the next five FOMC meetings. How would these increases affect your company's earnings, investment spending, and hiring over the next 12 months?

EARNINGS

Decrease minimally
Decrease moderately
Decrease substantially
No effect
Increase

INVESTMENT SPENDING

Decrease minimally
Decrease moderately
Decrease substantially
No effect
Increase

HIRING

Decrease minimally
Decrease moderately
Decrease substantially
No effect
Increase

8. What are the top three risks your corporation faces over the next 12 months (indicate top 3 risks using 1, 2, 3)
   Inflation
   Increased interest rates
   Wage increases
   Situation in Iraq
   Domestic terrorism
   Price of oil
   U.S. exchange rate
   Foreign outsourcing
   Chinese economic crisis
   Crisis in some other emerging market
   Other   

Please check one from each category that best describes your company:

     a. Industry

       Retail/Wholesale
       Mining/Construction
       Manufacturing
       Transportation/Energy
       Communications/Media
      Tech [Software/Biotech]
      Banking/Finance/Insurance
      Service/Consulting
      Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
      Other  
  b. Sales Revenue  c. Number of Employees
       Less than $25 million
       $25-$99 million
       $100-$499 million
       $500-$999 million
       $1-$4.9 billion
       More than $5 billion
      Fewer than 100
      100-499
      500-999
      1,000-2,499
      2,500-4,999
      5,000-9,999
      More than 10,000
  d. Headquarters   e. Ownership
       Northeast
       Mountain
       Midwest
       South Central
       South Atlantic
       Pacific
       Outside of U.S.
      Public, NYSE
      Public, NASDAQ/AMEX
      Private
  f. Foreign Sales g. Your job title (e.g., CFO, Asst. Treasurer, etc):
       0%
       1-24%
       25-50%
       More than 50%
       

Duke University, 2004