Stock Market Predictions

Question 2: On Dec 1, 2000, the annual yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was 5.5%.                
                   
    a. Best Guess: During the next year, I expect S&P to return ______% b. Best Guess: Over the next 10 years, the S&P 500 will average a ______annual return c. High Range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 chance the S&P return will be higher than __% d. High Range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 chance the S&P return will be lower than __%
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Industry Retail & Wholesale 8.62 29 9.18 29 16.93 29 1.66 29
  Mining/Construction 8.21 14 9.93 14 16.21 14 -5.50 14
  Manufacturing 7.76 90 9.71 90 15.54 89 0.66 87
  Transportation & Energy 7.68 11 10.09 11 12.55 11 0.09 11
  Communications and Media 7.45 10 11.00 10 17.30 10 1.60 10
  Tech (software/Biotech) 8.67 28 9.81 27 18.32 28 2.04 28
  Bank/Finance/Insurance 7.29 21 9.68 21 18.33 21 -2.90 21
  Other 7.02 40 9.67 40 17.43 40 -1.25 40
  NR 6.00 1 8.00 1 20.00 1 0.00 1
  Average 7.81 244 9.72 243 16.57 243 -0.04 241
                   
  Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Revenues $0-24 million 8.23 49 9.63 48 16.01 49 2.23 49
  $25-99 million 8.21 64 9.33 64 16.23 64 1.32 63
  $100-499 million 7.41 71 10.09 71 17.19 70 -1.64 69
  $500-999 million 8.17 26 10.10 26 16.77 26 -1.38 26
  $1-4.9 billion 6.60 25 9.36 25 16.40 25 0.12 25
  $5 billion and over 7.70 5 9.90 5 17.00 5 -9.40 5
  NR 8.38 4 10.25 4 17.50 4 -2.00 4
  Average 7.81 244 9.72 243 16.57 243 -0.04 241
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Size Less than 100 8.92 46 10.13 45 16.27 46 1.87 46
  100-499 8.15 81 9.37 81 16.80 81 1.07 81
  500-999 7.65 26 9.56 26 16.08 25 -3.00 24
  1000-2499 6.86 38 10.51 38 16.58 38 0.54 37
  2500-4999 7.17 12 9.08 12 19.17 12 -3.50 12
  5,000-9,999 7.39 23 9.52 23 15.74 23 -0.30 23
  Over 10,000 6.68 17 9.62 17 16.41 17 -4.18 17
  NR 5.00 1 8.00 1 15.00 1 -10.00 1
  Average 7.81 244 9.72 243 16.57 243 -0.04 241
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Hq. Location Northeast 7.21 57 9.46 56 15.24 57 -0.63 57
  Midwest 7.73 77 9.88 77 16.96 77 1.36 75
  South Atlantic 8.25 26 9.92 26 17.00 26 1.08 26
  Mountain 9.00 9 9.33 9 15.00 9 4.67 9
  South Central 6.08 24 9.69 24 14.22 23 -2.26 23
  Pacific 8.73 47 9.78 47 18.27 47 -1.45 47
  NR 11.75 4 9.50 4 22.50 4 -6.25 4
  Average 7.81 244 9.72 243 16.57 243 -0.04 241
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Ownership Public 7.46 97 9.78 96 16.86 97 -1.12 97
  Private 8.05 146 9.67 146 16.40 145 0.67 143
  NR 7.00 1 12.00 1 14.00 1 4.00 1
  Average 7.81 244 9.72 243 16.57 243 -0.04 241
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Foreign Sales 0% 7.36 85 9.42 85 16.05 84 -0.22 84
  1 - 24% 7.97 113 9.99 113 16.78 113 0.12 111
  25- - 49% 7.89 29 9.39 28 17.41 29 0.97 29
  50 - or more 8.97 15 10.13 15 16.20 15 -1.40 15
  NR 7.50 2 9.00 2 17.50 2 -5.00 2
  Average 7.81 244 9.72 243 16.57 243 -0.04 241
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Dividends Yes 6.63 77 9.52 77 16.70 76 -2.47 75
  No 8.36 163 9.81 162 16.53 163 0.98 162
    7.85 4 10.25 4 15.75 4 4.50 4
    7.81 244 9.72 243 16.57 243 -0.04 241

Last Updated on 12/21/2000
By Duke University