| Question 2: | On Dec 1, 2000, the annual yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was 5.5%. | ||||||||
| a. Best Guess: During the next year, I expect S&P to return ______% | b. Best Guess: Over the next 10 years, the S&P 500 will average a ______annual return | c. High Range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 chance the S&P return will be higher than __% | d. High Range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 chance the S&P return will be lower than __% | ||||||
| Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | ||
| By Industry | Retail & Wholesale | 8.62 | 29 | 9.18 | 29 | 16.93 | 29 | 1.66 | 29 |
| Mining/Construction | 8.21 | 14 | 9.93 | 14 | 16.21 | 14 | -5.50 | 14 | |
| Manufacturing | 7.76 | 90 | 9.71 | 90 | 15.54 | 89 | 0.66 | 87 | |
| Transportation & Energy | 7.68 | 11 | 10.09 | 11 | 12.55 | 11 | 0.09 | 11 | |
| Communications and Media | 7.45 | 10 | 11.00 | 10 | 17.30 | 10 | 1.60 | 10 | |
| Tech (software/Biotech) | 8.67 | 28 | 9.81 | 27 | 18.32 | 28 | 2.04 | 28 | |
| Bank/Finance/Insurance | 7.29 | 21 | 9.68 | 21 | 18.33 | 21 | -2.90 | 21 | |
| Other | 7.02 | 40 | 9.67 | 40 | 17.43 | 40 | -1.25 | 40 | |
| NR | 6.00 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 20.00 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | |
| Average | 7.81 | 244 | 9.72 | 243 | 16.57 | 243 | -0.04 | 241 | |
| Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | ||
| By Revenues | $0-24 million | 8.23 | 49 | 9.63 | 48 | 16.01 | 49 | 2.23 | 49 |
| $25-99 million | 8.21 | 64 | 9.33 | 64 | 16.23 | 64 | 1.32 | 63 | |
| $100-499 million | 7.41 | 71 | 10.09 | 71 | 17.19 | 70 | -1.64 | 69 | |
| $500-999 million | 8.17 | 26 | 10.10 | 26 | 16.77 | 26 | -1.38 | 26 | |
| $1-4.9 billion | 6.60 | 25 | 9.36 | 25 | 16.40 | 25 | 0.12 | 25 | |
| $5 billion and over | 7.70 | 5 | 9.90 | 5 | 17.00 | 5 | -9.40 | 5 | |
| NR | 8.38 | 4 | 10.25 | 4 | 17.50 | 4 | -2.00 | 4 | |
| Average | 7.81 | 244 | 9.72 | 243 | 16.57 | 243 | -0.04 | 241 | |
| Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | ||
| By Size | Less than 100 | 8.92 | 46 | 10.13 | 45 | 16.27 | 46 | 1.87 | 46 |
| 100-499 | 8.15 | 81 | 9.37 | 81 | 16.80 | 81 | 1.07 | 81 | |
| 500-999 | 7.65 | 26 | 9.56 | 26 | 16.08 | 25 | -3.00 | 24 | |
| 1000-2499 | 6.86 | 38 | 10.51 | 38 | 16.58 | 38 | 0.54 | 37 | |
| 2500-4999 | 7.17 | 12 | 9.08 | 12 | 19.17 | 12 | -3.50 | 12 | |
| 5,000-9,999 | 7.39 | 23 | 9.52 | 23 | 15.74 | 23 | -0.30 | 23 | |
| Over 10,000 | 6.68 | 17 | 9.62 | 17 | 16.41 | 17 | -4.18 | 17 | |
| NR | 5.00 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 15.00 | 1 | -10.00 | 1 | |
| Average | 7.81 | 244 | 9.72 | 243 | 16.57 | 243 | -0.04 | 241 | |
| Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | ||
| By Hq. Location | Northeast | 7.21 | 57 | 9.46 | 56 | 15.24 | 57 | -0.63 | 57 |
| Midwest | 7.73 | 77 | 9.88 | 77 | 16.96 | 77 | 1.36 | 75 | |
| South Atlantic | 8.25 | 26 | 9.92 | 26 | 17.00 | 26 | 1.08 | 26 | |
| Mountain | 9.00 | 9 | 9.33 | 9 | 15.00 | 9 | 4.67 | 9 | |
| South Central | 6.08 | 24 | 9.69 | 24 | 14.22 | 23 | -2.26 | 23 | |
| Pacific | 8.73 | 47 | 9.78 | 47 | 18.27 | 47 | -1.45 | 47 | |
| NR | 11.75 | 4 | 9.50 | 4 | 22.50 | 4 | -6.25 | 4 | |
| Average | 7.81 | 244 | 9.72 | 243 | 16.57 | 243 | -0.04 | 241 | |
| Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | ||
| By Ownership | Public | 7.46 | 97 | 9.78 | 96 | 16.86 | 97 | -1.12 | 97 |
| Private | 8.05 | 146 | 9.67 | 146 | 16.40 | 145 | 0.67 | 143 | |
| NR | 7.00 | 1 | 12.00 | 1 | 14.00 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | |
| Average | 7.81 | 244 | 9.72 | 243 | 16.57 | 243 | -0.04 | 241 | |
| Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | ||
| By Foreign Sales | 0% | 7.36 | 85 | 9.42 | 85 | 16.05 | 84 | -0.22 | 84 |
| 1 - 24% | 7.97 | 113 | 9.99 | 113 | 16.78 | 113 | 0.12 | 111 | |
| 25- - 49% | 7.89 | 29 | 9.39 | 28 | 17.41 | 29 | 0.97 | 29 | |
| 50 - or more | 8.97 | 15 | 10.13 | 15 | 16.20 | 15 | -1.40 | 15 | |
| NR | 7.50 | 2 | 9.00 | 2 | 17.50 | 2 | -5.00 | 2 | |
| Average | 7.81 | 244 | 9.72 | 243 | 16.57 | 243 | -0.04 | 241 | |
| Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | Average | No. Responding | ||
| By Dividends | Yes | 6.63 | 77 | 9.52 | 77 | 16.70 | 76 | -2.47 | 75 |
| No | 8.36 | 163 | 9.81 | 162 | 16.53 | 163 | 0.98 | 162 | |
| 7.85 | 4 | 10.25 | 4 | 15.75 | 4 | 4.50 | 4 | ||
| 7.81 | 244 | 9.72 | 243 | 16.57 | 243 | -0.04 | 241 | ||