Stock market predictions

Question 5: On Sept 6, 2000 the annual yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was 5.7%.                
                   
    a. Best Guess: During the next year, I expect S&P to return ______% b. Best Guess: Over the next 10 years, the S&P 500 will average a ______annual return c. High Range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 chance the S&P return will be higher than __% d. High Range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 chance the S&P return will be lower than __%
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Industry Retail & Wholesale 8.46 34 10.91 33 19.02 33 3.03 32
  Mining/Construction 10.00 13 11.00 13 21.31 13 -4.54 13
  Manufacturing 7.93 65 10.03 65 17.98 65 2.77 64
  Transportation & Energy 8.61 11 10.23 11 18.36 11 -2.09 11
  Communications and Media 9.75 12 11.33 12 17.50 12 3.83 12
  Tech (software/Biotech) 9.75 18 9.97 19 17.84 19 -0.42 19
  Bank/Finance/Insurance 9.02 26 10.81 26 19.38 26 -2.38 26
  NR 9.39 9 9.00 9 14.89 9 1.89 9
  Average 8.72 188 10.40 188 18.42 188 0.99 186
                   
  Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Revenues $0-24 million 10.23 20 11.05 21 19.05 21 2.48 21
  $25-99 million 8.33 54 9.31 54 17.60 54 -0.92 53
  $100-499 million 8.68 61 10.98 60 19.90 60 0.95 59
  $500-999 million 9.08 19 10.50 19 16.42 19 3.74 19
  $1-4.9 billion 7.53 24 10.17 24 16.83 24 1.42 24
  $5 billion and over 11.33 6 11.17 6 20.33 6 1.50 6
  NR 8.50 4 12.75 4 20.00 4 3.00 4
  Average 8.72 188 10.40 188 18.42 188 0.99 186
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Size Less than 100 9.47 15 9.94 16 19.81 16 2.38 16
  100-499 8.70 69 10.28 69 18.09 69 -0.91 69
  500-999 8.42 35 10.52 35 20.36 35 1.67 33
  1000-2499 8.84 18 10.43 18 17.39 18 1.61 18
  2500-4999 8.69 16 10.53 16 17.81 16 3.56 16
  5,000-9,999 7.39 18 10.21 17 15.18 17 2.12 17
  Over 10,000 9.87 14 10.61 14 18.86 14 1.29 14
  NR 11.00 3 13.33 3 21.67 3 5.00 3
  Average 8.72 188 10.40 188 18.42 188 0.99 186
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Hq. Location Northeast 8.82 48 9.94 47 17.80 47 0.51 45
  Midwest 8.81 60 10.57 60 18.05 60 1.30 60
  South Atlantic 8.13 20 9.78 20 17.70 20 0.95 20
  Mountain 8.25 8 9.38 8 21.13 8 0.25 8
  South Central 8.24 21 10.57 21 20.81 21 2.19 21
  Pacific 9.10 30 11.16 31 18.00 31 0.39 31
  NR 13.00 1 15.00 1 25.00 1 5.00 1
  Average 8.72 188 10.40 188 18.42 188 0.99 186
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Ownership Public 8.66 67 10.60 68 18.71 68 1.79 68
  Private 8.75 121 10.28 120 18.25 120 0.53 118
  NR - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
  Average 8.72 188 10.40 188 18.42 188 0.99 186
                   
    Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Foreign Markets 0% 8.97 64 10.75 63 17.15 63 1.26 62
  1 - 24% 8.72 91 10.15 91 18.43 91 0.99 91
  25- - 49% 8.08 25 10.24 25 20.92 25 0.96 24
  50 - or more 8.69 8 10.89 9 20.22 9 -0.67 9
  NR - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
  Average 8.72 188 10.40 188 18.42 188 0.99 186

Last Updated on 10/4/2000
By Duke University